By Craig W. Anderson
As 2024 grinds to a finish, members of the San Joaquin Farm Bureau reflect on the nearly completed year of agriculture, looking into the past and toward the future of the various agriculture sectors.
Some issues that ag faces include high hourly wages (but a bipartisan group in the U.S. House is urging relief for farmers via a temporary freeze on rising wages) and the idea that California wants to harness more than half its land to combat climate change by 2045 along with the revival of the $18 billion tunnel to send Delta water to Southern California.
One of the important elements of 2024, according to SFJB Executive Director Andrew Genasci was that it completed a “back-to-back of two good water years,” and that the ag sectors of dairy, the No. 1 commodity in the agricultural commissioner’s 2023 Crop Report, along with almonds (No. 3) and walnuts (No. 6), “turned a little bit of a positive corner…but there was no miracle turn-around.” In fact, milk and almonds, which had declined in 2023, appeared at near 2024 years end to be on their way to a modest recovery.
Apparently, the federal government is at last realizing that agriculture has been traveling a rocky road for two or three years. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack remarked that while small-scale agriculture in America has experienced an increase in the average size of farms, the nation has lost 544,000 farms since 1981.
Genasci said there were no big surprises, that the ag community “kind of knew what we were in for” which was an industry suffering from inflation pressures and input costs that continue to increase. “
The No. 1 of the ag commissioner’s Top Ten Commodities in 2023 was Milk and SJFB President Les Strojan pointed out that “Milk prices seemed to strengthen but grapes [No. 2] were sad,” almonds [No. 3] were borderline and that [No. 6] walnuts, “didn’t suffer dramatically.”
SJFB First Vice President James Chinchiolo noted, “There were some high points and definitely low points this past somber year. From the weather standpoint there were challenges caused by the summer heat.”
He said his understanding of how various commodities were faring in the county seemed to indicate at this time that “beef cattle were doing well, the walnut forecast for the 2024 crop was up but that grains, hay and row crops weren’t necessarily doing great.”
Of the walnut varieties, he explained that “Chandlers, although having a down volume from an estimate standpoint seem to be all right; the early varieties were down in volume but prices will be up.”
Chinchiolo also commented on the cherry crop which he farms, noting, “It was a good quality year but I’m disappointed that the industry doesn’t have a better promotion plan. Our cherries are undervalued in the marketplace by how they’re displayed in retail outlets. There’s little or no merchandising to consumers that meets their anticipation for the fruit.”
A Look at No. 1: Milk
Dairy farmer Jack Hamm said, “Inflation is the main problem faced by dairies and all of ag, for that matter. We are an agricultural county and I think in 2024, dairy farmers will be in the black, depending on milk and beef prices.”
Milk’s commodity value decreased in 2023 to a value of $626.5 million, still a robust sum despite being $5.1 million less than the previous year.
The dairy sector in San Joaquin County and throughout California is facing the threat of the bird flu infesting dairy cows, which affects milk prices. Hamm pointed out that bird flu takes away gallons of milk production per cow and while the disease hasn’t hit San Joaquin County dairy farmers as yet, “It’s definitely a cloud on the horizon.” The bird flu “puts cows off their feed and they feel crappy, just like we humans do when we get the flu. And like us, we have to watch out for dehydration and hydrate the cows when necessary.” Hamm found it ironic that the beef industry isn’t talking about the bird flu. He said the dairy industry and ag has “hit a rough patch that’s bearable.”
In fact, he said 2024 “started out horribly; milk prices were down in the first part of the year. Expenses remained high. But now, both are more even and dairy has become one of the brighter ag sectors, brighter than 2023 for sure.”
Hamm said it is difficult to raise replacement dairy cows and that “it’s a better deal to buy them. Cow value is better now and calf prices are good. Dairy is now hitting on all cylinders.”
Grapes face continued challenges
Clements area winegrape grower Brad Goehring said 2024 was a “normal year with bud break on time and temperature spikes that came at the wrong time. Overall, it’s been good with production on the light side.”
However, he said the wine market has been a “bloodbath, with large wineries importing foreign juice to add a higher percentage to their wine instead of using our local sourced juice as they have in the past for years.”
He said regulations, new rules and the higher minimum wage “ratcheted up our input costs which have more than doubled over the last two years. However, the biggest issue is the use by big wineries of the imported juice.”
If these input costs, additional rules and regulations and the continued use of significant amounts of imported juice in lieu of local product, “we’ll have to consider the California wine industry’s ability to continue,” Goehring said.
Grape growers across California who can’t find wineries to buy their fruit are offering unprecedented discounts as they’re running out of time to make a profit from 2024’s crop. Add to this the global glut of wine and new generations of potential wine consumers not consuming because of an aversion to alcohol and it’s a serious situation.
The local wine growing season was “much more normal and the heat made the ripening relentless,” said Amy Blagg, executive director of the Lodi District Grape Growers Association. “It’s a light crop, one that continued to get lighter. All varieties across the board were affected.”
“The winegrape market is quite a challenge with most of the whites picked up but some of the reds will go unharvested,” Blagg explained. “We’re continuing to see removals but there weren’t as many quality issues.”
Stuart Spencer, executive director of the Lodi Winegrape Commission, said the market conditions were “really difficult, grapes went unharvested from last year and the big wineries using millions of gallons of cheap foreign wines as additives have helped create an unhealthy market.”
Spencer added, “The federal government subsidizes these imports…there is a loophole in the regulations and the large wineries are taking advantage of it. The U.S. government subsidizes imports to benefit big wineries.”
In the first four months of 2024, the federal government refunded more than $21 million in alcohol taxes and duties to subsidize imported wine. The excess wine, he said, has flooded the market and driven down demand for California – grown wines and grapes.
“U.S. trade policy…has helped create this mess by subsidizing imports for the benefit of a few global alcohol companies, “Spencer said. “Other domestic wineries are squeezed out of export markets.”
Almonds endure challenging 2024
The 2023 crop value of almonds was $343.5 million garnering the No. 3 slot in the Top Ten Crops in the Ag Commissioner’s Crop Report and the 2024 crop came in early with nonpareil registering a crop increase of 20% and was 40% of California’s crop. After years of rapid growth, California and San Joaquin almond industries are struggling amid low prices.
“The bloom was good, as was the nut set and the June drop was normal,” commented SJFB Second Vice President Herman Doornenbal. “But the lasting heat caused nut shrivel and we lost two sizes. Yield was affected, but some areas fared better than others.”
He also said the 2.8 billion pounds estimate might not be reached.
“The pollinators are down 12% and we’re still working on them,” said Dave Phippen, partner in Travaille & Phippen in Ripon. “A slight increase in Nonpareil was expected but we’ll know for sure when the Final Shipment Report is released in January.”
The Independence variety had slightly down numbers for the first time.
Phippen said prices were up substantially and the timing was two or three weeks late and “my guess is that the crop will fall short of the estimate which means more support for higher prices,” he said.
2023 was a “dirty” crop – dust and other detritus – and 2024 is dirty but not as bad as 2023 but with “a lot of brown spot damage which was a little surprising. There was stink bug presence and the quality wasn’t as good due to that insect,” Phippen said.
About walnuts and winegrapes, Phippen said, “It reminds me of the 1980’s. It’s been really rough in the county and crop equity is taking a hit. Expenses are higher and regulations are strangling us, not only almonds but many other crops as well.”
Doornenbal commented, “Everyone had a tough year but 2024 was not much better than last year. Nut prices bottomed out and all nuts are starting to stabilize as almond harvest winds down.”
Walnuts yields down
“We’ve harvested and more are coming,” said Linden area diversified grower Ken Vogel. “Prices are up for Chandlers but crop yields are down and I don’t really know why at this point. Of course, the high summer heat undoubtedly had an effect.”
Chinchiolo explained that “Chandlers, although having a down volume from an estimate standpoint seem to be alright; the early varieties were down in volume but prices will be up.”
But this decline in yields didn’t change the fact that San Joaquin County is the state’s leading walnut producer with about 71,000 acres planted to walnuts.
Good news came in a statement from the California Walnut Board and Commission: “Preliminary data indicates that the 2023 crop is virtually sold out.” Vogel and other growers hope this trend continues for the 2024 crop.
Robert Verloop, executive director and CEO of the Commission, said, “The estimated 2024 crop size… is lower than the historic record crop of 2023 [but] due to strong summer demand, we expect the end of season shipment report to show the carry-in volume to be substantially less than last year.”
Heat causes timing issues for cherries
Overall, according to the county ag commissioner’s Crop Report, 2023’s cherries had a crop value of $273.4 million, down $3 million from the previous year.
About the 2024 cherry crop, Ken Vogel reported, “Early varieties, Corals, did well but Bings didn’t due to too many culls and when Washington’s crop came on the market at the same time as the heat hit local cherries, prices dropped.”
Chinchiolo, who farms cherries, said, “It was a good quality year but I’m disappointed that the industry doesn’t have a better promotion plan. Our cherries are undervalued in the marketplace by how they’re displayed in retail outlets. There’s little or no merchandising to consumers that meets their anticipation for the fruit.”
Vogel said, “I see a lot of orchards up for sale and being removed in our immediate area around Linden. Things change but now change comes faster with more time and costs involved.”
Tomatoes in 2024
The 2023 tomato crop increased significantly over the 2022 version by $33.2 million to $147.4 million. But the 2024 crop received a state of emergency declaration from the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors in July when a virus carried by the ubiquitous beef leafhopper was discovered. However, after the appropriate eradication methods were used, the harvest went on as usual.
“There was a lot of green and the estimate is that the crop would be down 15%,” said veteran diversified grower Paul Sanguinetti. “Overhead’s eating us up.”
In August, the California Tomato Growers Association announced it had agreed with all processors to $112.50 per ton for 2024. The Association said in a statement that it “considers $112.50 to be a fair and reasonable Base Price for this season.”
Sanguinetti said if a grower has something under contract, they’ll make money but without a contract “it’s challenging.”
Eggs hatching success in 2024
Half of California’s egg production comes from Northern California where the majority of the egg farms are in the San Joaquin Valley with the bulk of the production coming from San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced and Kern counties.
The main breed of chicken laying white eggs is the Single Comb White Leghorn; there are various breeds that lay brown eggs. Contrary to popular rumor, there is no nutritional difference between the colors.
Eggs in the county advanced to the No. 5 spot in 2023 via a comeback after the California poultry industry was rocked during a nationwide avian flu pandemic in 2022. Millions of chickens were culled with the resulting shortages in poultry supplies and sent prices to consumers soaring. During that poultry panic more than 500,000 California chickens and turkeys had the avian [bird] flu.
The threat of bird flu is apparently gone from San Joaquin County according to the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service; a mere 168 confirmed cases of the disease were confirmed in the county since 2023, with none reported in 2024. Egg prices soared during the bird flu infestation; when birds are ill, fewer eggs are produced and higher prices hit grocery stores.
“Bird flu is the No. 1 reason for higher prices, absolutely,” said Phil Lempert, grocery industry analyst and editor of SuperMarketGuru.com.
Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board, said, “The volatility we’ve seen in egg prices is based on many factors, most of which are beyond egg farmer’s control.” She noted that bird flu, strong demand and higher costs for feed, labor, fuel and packaging has driven up prices.
“America’s egg farmers are doing everything they can to keep their costs down while ensuring a steady supply of safe, wholesome, quality eggs,” said Metz.
Cattle and Calves in 2024
About the 8th place commodity on the Agricultural Commissioners Top Ten List of 2023 commodities there were mixed reviews about the 2024 version.
Cattle rancher and SJFB President Les Strojan said, “Prices are higher but input costs are way up.” He said the drought caused problems with feed and heat affected the herds which pushed “some ranchers to sell their cattle down and if they wanted to buy back the prices were much higher.”
The cattle and calf market has been strong throughout 2024 according to cattleman and farmer Kenny Watkins. “It’s been one of our better years with prices strong all year. 2024’s also been a good feed year and the heat has been well managed.”
He said cattle ranchers are “Looking forward to rain so we’ll have green grass in our pastures. Overall, I’ve got nothing to cry about in 2024.”
Hay and feed costs didn’t increase “all that much and almond hulls costs for feed were low,” Strojan said, adding that hay production was “way down and people weren’t stocking up on hay as they usually do.”
Paul Sanguinetti explained that his silage crop “was about normal at 25 to 30 tons” but that overhead costs for this and other crops are “eating us up.”
Blueberries continue growth
San Joaquin County’s blueberries hit the Top Ten in the 2023 Ag Commissioner’s Crop Report landing in the No. 9 slot with a value of $81.7 million, an increase of more than $16.8 million over 2022.
And the surge was estimated to continue in 2024 but with product flooding the market again at record levels, lower prices could be in the offing.
According to the California Blueberry Commission, California’s 2024 blueberry crop was estimated at 74.5 million pounds, 53 million heading to the fresh market and 21 million pounds going to processors. That’s an increase from 2023’s 71 million pounds but short of the initial estimate of 80 million pounds.
Why the change? According to Todd Sanders, the commission’s executive director, the 80 million estimate “was adjusted due to some rain damage during bud break that affected fruit set.”
Also, mild temperatures at the beginning of 2024 helped produce a plethora of blossoms on the plant but cold and rainy days in early spring slowed fruit sizing and ripening.
To maintain a competitive posture against imported fruit, Sanders said, “More California blueberry growers have become certified organic” which now make up 45% of the state crop.
Overall, the 2024 blueberry crop looks to maintain its position as a popular commodity.
Silage hits hard times
Hope regarding San Joaquin County’s 2024 silage situation revolves around an ironic hope, said San Joaquin Valley Hay Growers Association president and CEO Rick Stass. “Hopefully, the hay and silage market will have hit bottom by the end of the year. This has been the worst hay year for prices in the last five years. It’s been tough and there’s a lot of uncertainty out there.”
Farmers who usually purchase significant amounts of hay “have taken a conservative course and cut back on hay this year,” he said. “It’s been a strange year of really good quality hay but with prices off by $60-$80 per ton.”
Silage corn is pricing at just above the break even point, “selling around $33 – $34 per ton, off about 20% from 2023,” he said. “Baling costs are now at $45-$48 per bale and stack. Inflation’s hit every element of agriculture.”
The ag ebb and flow of crop acreage being pulled out and replaced by feed crops like silage corn, grains and hay is not balanced and, Stass said, “Farms are either being consolidated, or the small guys are getting out so this business is in a state of flux.”
Other Crops often forgotten but vitally important to SJC ag success
Looming huge in that 2023 crop value total was the amount generated by the “Other Crops” that don’t receive the publicity of the Top Ten but are, nevertheless, a vital component of the county’s agricultural wealth.
Other crops in 2023 accounted for $1,446,620,000 of the total crop value. Other Crops are consistently a powerful driver of the county’s agriculture and perhaps the single most reliable element of the county’s ag production year after year. Individually, the crops accounting for this dollar value may be ignored but their impact of more than $1.4 billion cannot be.
“Our Other Crops show the diversity of SJC agriculture, from the Delta to the Sierra foothills,” Genasci said. “Linden’s cherries and other crops thrive in our microclimate that makes San Joaquin County truly unique. With these crops solidifying our background we’re well positioned to have a positive outlook.”
Sanguinetti is an example of Other Crop success farming lima beans and barley along with tomatoes, walnuts, almonds and silage.
“Many of the Other Crops values are just outside of the Top Ten,” said SJFB President Les Strojan. “This strength across the board by the huge variety of crops shows the diversity of them and the strength of our soil and water.”
A sampling of the Other Crops value looks like this: rice: $33.1 million; apples: $9.4 million; olives -processing $13.4 million; Peaches-all: $16.5 million; pistachios: $15.4 million; miscellaneous fruits and nuts: $4.9 million; sweet corn: $4.9 million; cucumbers: $6.9 million; garlic: $15.9 million; melons-all: $36.9 million; beans-all: $6.2 million; onions: $11.1 million; peppers: $5.5 million; pumpkins: $30.4 million; squash: $6.7 million.
“The Other Crops category demonstrates the incredible diversity of the county’s agriculture,” Chinchiolo said. “This category is always strong and it’s almost one-half of the total commodity value. And when some Top Ten commodities may be suffering, these crops provide an alternative to consider.”
